Well, we’re here, the quote unquote “penultimate step of the war.” I gotta say, it feels like this war has been about to start for most of the season, but here we are yet again. In our fantasy league, Mary is still winning, and Todd is still in second place, but here in the real game, the player that nobody picked, Tony (along with Wendell), is still in the game and is still making moves, and he seems to be in a pretty good position moving into this final, although that could all change depending on who comes back from the Edge. Without further ado, let’s break down what happened last night.

Todd: Hey everyone, how are you? Do you feel like this has been the “greatest season of Survivor,” as Jeff said in his not-sure-but-I-want-to-say-5000 minute long recap of the season? Mary, where do we stand with this season, heading into the finale? How does it stack up against other seasons you have seen?

Mary: I do NOT feel like this has been the greatest season of Survivor, though it has been interesting for sure. No matter how hard the producers are pushing the “unprecedented” nature of this season, it still feels pretty standard. Every chance for something REALLY wild to happen ended up...not happening--like Adam trying to find an idol in Jeff’s podium. Also, I think people in general (if the Reddit boards are to be believed) are sick of the Edge of Extinction. It’s been fun seeing a lot of old favorites pal around over on the Edge, but it seems unfair for someone who has been out since day one (ie Natalie) to get back in the game at the last minute. I have a strong feeling that Natalie might get back in the game--and she might win.

Todd: And honestly? For this season? It’s what the producers deserve. If they want to shove this very dumb twist down everyone’s throats, then it serves them right that both times it ends up with winners that almost no one believes should have won outside of that very specific jury. If I’m Ethan and I have lived for 3 weeks with Natalie and seen how hard she works to get Fire Tokens, why wouldn’t I vote for her over someone like Tony or Sarah that he barely even interacted with? If the producers want these seasons to be about the Edge, then give us more time there. And if each of these seasons are going to end with the person from the Edge winning, then skip the 24 or 34 days in between their boot and their win! Because none of the rest of the season matters!

Okay, obviously, don’t do that! I still want my Survivor, but it is so depressing to think that we will have watched another season where episodes 2-14 have basically no bearing on who wins the game. Let’s get back to the episode at hand. What did we make of the two ousters tonight? Any last thoughts on the games played by Jeremy and Nick?

Mary: It might have been different if they’d only given them one chance to get back in the game. It didn’t feel wrong when Tyson returned, aside from, well, it being Tyson. But at the very end? In the finale?! It’s too much.

I wasn’t surprised by Jeremy or Nick going home. Their names have been thrown around for a while. For a moment, it seemed like Nick was going to be on the up and up, and that maybe he could finagle moves similar to what he did in his winning season, but it’s not a huge shock that he just went home instead. Tony is running things right now, as weird as that is to admit. I think Tony’s the person to beat this season, and if Natalie does make it back in the game we’ll have two very different arguments made. Natalie can argue that she’s lived through excruciatingly cruel, bare conditions--and thrived. She’s won almost every advantage she could win on the Edge, and handily beat out even the fittest, freshest contestants she had to compete against. She’s also had almost zero interaction with the people still left in the game. On the other hand, Tony has run a surprisingly nuanced social game. Sure, he’s been paranoid at times, and he has resorted to his spy shack tactics, but somehow it’s all worked for him. The people still in the game will be impressed by his maneuvering, but the people on the Edge will certainly be more swayed by Natalie, who they’ve lived with and struggled with for the duration of their time there.

All of this is a hypothetical, of course, and depends on Natalie getting back in the game. But with her advantages (paid for with the hoard of fire tokens she’s accumulated) and her physical skill in general (I mean she is ripped), I think it’s not that unlikely that she’ll return.

Tony and Jeremy were at the heart of a lot of drama this week.

Todd: Yup, I agree. From an editing standpoint (a standpoint I love to take), it also makes sense for Natalie to come back. She has probably gotten the most screentime on the Edge, partly because she has been there the longest, but partly, I suspect, because she is coming back and the editors know that. It reminds me of Chris from the original Edge of Extinction and how we kept hearing about how he wanted to play the perfect game but failed. Probably the person most likely after Natalie to come back is...Tyson again? I guess? And then he would almost certainly be voted out again. That would be funny and worth seeing. Natalie does feel like she could really hold her own against the other players though and shake things up at the end.

I also want to say that I think, maybe, Michele could still...win? I know that seems unlikely right now, but it is not unlike what happened in her first season. If she manages to scrape through a few more votes and then win an immunity challenge at the right time?

Mary: NOPE. Michelle is kind of a goat right now, I think. What has she done? Like, what has she really done? And would that hold up against someone like Tony, who has been running things?

Todd: That is a solid question, and not unwarranted. But, I think you also have to look at past seasons of Survivor. Oftentimes, people don’t like the people who make it to the end. They’re jealous, obviously, but they’re also hurt, because they thought they had real relationships, but they still had their dreams crushed by the people in the final tribal. I think Michele played this season mostly with her hands clean, which could be seen as skating by or riding coattails, but it could also be a boon if the jury is particularly salty about the way the other people on the council played. If it’s a scenario with Tony, Sarah, and Michele, I could easily see Michele getting votes over Tony, who was skillful but potentially ruthless, and Sarah, who made many bonds but still ended up stabbing those people in the back. Do I think this is likely, with this group, who will be thinking about the person they want to represent the Winner of All Winners? No. No, I do not. But wilder things have happened. Look no further than every time Russell Hantz made it to a final tribal.

Mary: UGH. How dare you say his name. Who you go to the end with really matters, and it’s difficult to determine what’s really going to happen until that final tribal starts. People do bomb final tribal in a big way sometimes by dodging questions or lying. I think Natalie has a solid story, a really compelling comeback story, and people like that. Even against Tony, who’s been really successful this season (again, somehow?! How did we get here from the ladder incident?). Living with nothing and rising to the top is just a great underdog tale that people latch on to. Not to mention that the jury will be the people who have been with her every day and seen that struggle firsthand.

Todd: Yup. I want to zero in on something else you mentioned. The ladder incident. It reminds me of Tony and Jeremy’s conversation this episode about how many days are in a week. Obviously, they are 32 days into a mostly food-less existence, but it was still hilarious to watch Tony try to explain to Jeremy that there are only 5 days in a week. “That’s why you’re a cop,” as Jeremy says, and you can tell there are a lot of firefighter/cop jokes being told in either the police station or the firehouse. Still, moments like that were too few and far between this season, and they could have gone a long way to making this “the greatest season” in Survivor history. We keep coming back for the strategy, obviously, but we mostly come back for the people. And this season, the producers skimped too much on showing us who these people really are. Give me more fashion shows, more spy nests, more candid moments. That’s what makes Survivor ultimately so compelling. And for goodness sake, stop saying you are going to vote someone out before the immunity challenge!

Mary: That’s an excellent point. I think small camp moments really humanize the contestants and make me root for them in a different way. I think we’ve seen more of that this season than in some other recent seasons, but still not enough! Remember the old seasons when they’d show everyone just hanging around bickering for hours? That was what I really liked. That’s why I watch things like The Real Housewives.

And yes, saying you want to vote someone out BEFORE the challenge is the kiss of death to whatever plans have been made. Every. Time.

That’s all this week for…

SURVIVOR:

WINNERS

WARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!

Ya better be ready…

They’re comin’...

For you...